2025 in review and what's in store for 2026 • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Trump Administration (2025): Characterized by aggressive policy enforcement, "deal-making" diplomacy, and a "shock and awe" approach to governance.
• AI Slop & Rage Bait: The proliferation of low-quality AI-generated content and deliberately provocative online material, impacting discourse and democracy.
• Decline of the Center-Left: A predicted collapse of centrist and left-leaning political parties in the US and Europe due to perceived bankruptcy and ineffectiveness.
• Age of the Envoy: A shift from traditional diplomacy to personalized, often unconventional, envoy-led negotiations in major global conflicts.
• European Union's Role: Increasing pressure on the EU to take on greater responsibility for global security and financial support, particularly for Ukraine, as US engagement potentially wanes.
• Tech Billionaires and Democracy: Concerns about the influence of tech magnates on political systems and their potential to undermine democratic institutions.

Summary of Global Events in 2025

This summary reflects on the tumultuous year of 2025, highlighting key political, diplomatic, and technological shifts, as discussed by a panel of international correspondents.

US Political Landscape and Trump's Return

The year began with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States. His return to the White House was marked by a "chaotic, unpredictable diplomatic circus" and a departure from established norms. Supporters viewed his approach as a "madman theory," while critics saw it as a "madman reality." This era saw "temperamental tariffs" and the coining of the term "taco" (Trump Always Chickens Out).

• Inauguration Day (January 20th): The swearing-in ceremony was moved indoors due to a cold front, a first since Reagan. President Trump declared it "liberation day," vowing a return to a "golden age." Notable reactions included Hillary Clinton's laughter at the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America," and Bill Clinton's side-eye. The event was attended by tech billionaires and the business elite, with Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk showing their support.
• Department of Government Efficiency: This initiative led to "brutal cuts at breakneck speed."
• Greenland Takeover Threat: Initially a prominent threat, rhetoric surrounding this issue later calmed. Denmark's intelligence services identified the Trump administration as a security threat.
• Approval Ratings: Despite the aggressive agenda, Trump's approval ratings remained low, with Reuters showing 41% approval and 57% disapproval, and Economist YouGov at 38% approval and 57% disapproval.
• Project 2025 Blueprint: This plan, drafted by the Heritage Foundation, served as the blueprint for the Trump administration's aggressive agenda, exceeding expectations in its intensity.
• Midterm Elections (2026): The administration is expected to be even more hurried leading up to the midterms, raising questions about the future of the MAGA movement and potential successors like JD Vance.
• Surrendering Political Currency: A concern was raised about America potentially surrendering its political influence globally, impacting future relationships with allies.
• Institutions Buckling: Many institutions, including Columbia University and various news outlets, were seen as "buckling" and "caving" to Trump's demands, sacrificing principles.
• Checks and Balances: The extraordinary authority Trump asserted over the Republican party, making both houses of Congress "supine," called into question the notion of checks and balances.

Global Conflicts and Diplomatic Shifts

The year was marked by ongoing conflicts and a new style of diplomacy.

• Ukraine War: The war was not resolved in 24 hours, with Ukraine continuing to "dig in and hold on." President Zelenskyy faced political pressure due to corruption scandals and demands from President Trump to concede territory and call elections. A quote highlighted the gamble with lives and the risk of World War III.
• Gaza Conflict: After two ceasefires and a death toll reaching 70,000, all living hostages were released. The "Trump plan" for peace remained in effect, with a fragile ceasefire. Phase two, involving Hamas disarmament and IDF withdrawal, seemed distant.
• Iran: "Operation Midnight Hammer" involved significant US air strikes on Iranian nuclear bunkers.
• Sudan: Described as the "world's biggest humanitarian crisis" and a "forgotten war," it continued with little international attention.
• Coups and Conflict: Coups occurred in Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau. Conflict brewed in Latin America, with US "gunboat diplomacy" off the coast of Venezuela.
• Venezuela: Autocratic leader Nicolás Maduro was observed dancing to his own speech, "No War. Yes. Peace." The rise of "gunboat diplomacy" and the threat of US land invasion were unexpected developments.
  • Envoy Steve Wickoff: A real estate developer, Wickoff played a significant role in brokering peace plans for Gaza and Ukraine. He is credited with a 20-point Trump Gaza peace plan and a similar proposal for Ukraine. He was also reportedly involved in President Trump's call for the Israeli president to pardon Benjamin Netanyahu.
  • US Gunboat Diplomacy: Vivien Waltz suggested this was an easier option than addressing inflation, making noise but with unclear outcomes. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned from Congress, citing this policy.
  • Maduro's Exile: Turkey was suggested as a potential destination for Maduro, given strong relations between Erdogan and Maduro, and alleged assistance in laundering gold revenues.
  • War Games on Venezuela: Doug Farah's analysis indicated that toppling Maduro through military means consistently ended in chaos due to factional conflicts.
  • Trump's Desire to End Killing: Stephen Erlinger noted Trump's apparent sincere desire to end killing, citing his influence on Netanyahu to stop the war in Gaza and potential pressure on Putin. However, this could come at the expense of Palestinians, Gazans, or Ukrainians.

European Politics and International Relations

Europe faced its own set of challenges and shifts in alliances.

• European Allies: Found "pay as you play rules overwhelming," leading to shifting alliances.
• President Putin: Was "allowed back in from the cold," embraced in Alaska.
• France: President Macron's government "scraped through," with a volatile coalition. His wife was involved in a "hot mic" incident where she was heard calling feminist protesters "dirty bleeps."
• Germany: Experienced coalition infighting and economic stagnation. Friedrich Merz faced challenges due to a thin coalition majority and the influence of the far-right AfD.
• United Kingdom: The Labour government faced criticism for backtracking on tax increases. The royal family was reportedly nervous about parliamentary probes into their financial arrangements, particularly after Prince Andrew was stripped of his titles.
• EU and US Tech Giants: A major conflict was anticipated between the EU and US tech barons over regulatory frameworks. Elon Musk's support for AFD rallies in Germany and his pivotal role in Trump's re-election worried EU politicians.
• European Union's Role in Ukraine: With potential US withdrawal of support, the EU was urged to step up. A coalition of willing nations was being formed, and an upcoming EU summit was crucial for unfreezing Russian assets to provide financial aid to Ukraine, estimated at 65 billion euros annually.

Technological Advancements and Societal Impact

The year saw a significant rise in AI and its impact on language and information.

• AI Slop: A prevalent issue, referring to low-quality AI-generated content.
• Words of the Year (2025):
  • Rage Bait (Oxford English Dictionary): Online content designed to provoke anger and drive engagement for ad revenue. Examples included provocative statements about men crying and dogs hating their owners.
  • Parasocial (Cambridge Dictionary): A one-sided relationship with a person one doesn't know, increasingly applied to celebrities, influencers, and AI chatbots.
  • AI Slop (Macquarie Dictionary): Low-quality AI-generated content.
• AI Chatbots: Transitioned from novelty to everyday essentials, with ChatGPT having 800 million weekly users.
• Superficiality: Nina Dos Santos linked parasocial relationships and over-reliance on AI to a growing superficiality in existence, detrimental to democracy.
• Journalism and AI: Bouru Deragori used AI for editing due to the lack of copy editors. He characterized the year as one of "slop," encompassing AI, government, and political content.
• Vivian Waltz's Use of AI: Utilized AI for transcription, translation, and fact-checking, while also acknowledging its potential peril. She highlighted Novo Nordisk's AI lab for drug research as a positive application.
• AI Companies and the Stock Market: AI companies represented a significant portion of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a prediction of a potential "big pop" and subsequent downturn.

Notable Events and Cultural Moments

• Louvre Heist: The crown jewels were stolen in 420 seconds.
• Vatican: A new era began with an American papacy, Cardinal Robert Pvos becoming Pope Leo XIV.
• Venice: The "Bezos wedding of the year" caused three days of chaos. Jeff Bezos also sent his fiancée into space on a celebrity rocket trip, leading to speculation about the passengers' detachment from reality.
• Google Searches: Top trending searches included Charlie Kirk and Zora Mandani, a social media savvy politician who campaigned on affordability and the plight of Palestinians.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Bouru Deragori: Argued that tech billionaires aim to "destroy democracy" by dismantling state control and promoting anti-humanistic agendas, with AI being a tool in this scheme. He also criticized the "slop" permeating culture and politics, driven by these billionaires.
• Nina Dos Santos: Expressed concern about the superficiality fostered by AI and parasocial relationships, which makes people "easily manipulatable by politicians" and detrimental to democracy. She also highlighted the potential for Europe to step up in supporting Ukraine if US support wanes.
• Vivian Waltz: Described the year as an "overwhelming slog" for journalists, where significant events are "mashed up in this tumult." She noted the "complete smashing of norms" brought by Trump and the concentration of power in the hands of a few billionaires.
• Stephen Erlinger: Emphasized Trump's ability to break through conventions and traditions, and his intense loyalty from a passionate base, rather than broad popularity. He also pointed to the potential for Trump to achieve successes in ending killing, albeit potentially at a cost to allies.

Predictions for 2026

• Stephen Erlinger: Predicted a "national rally" for the President of France, which would "shake many foundations."
• Nina Dos Santos: Forecasted that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves in the UK would be forced out by their own party due to poor performance, with the spectre of a far-right government also a concern.
• Bouru Deragori: Foresees the "utter collapse of the center-left" in the US, UK, and Europe due to perceived bankruptcy and ineffectiveness.
• Vivian Waltz: Predicted that Trump's declining health would reach a "dramatic climax" with significant ripple effects on US and global politics.

Conclusion

The year 2025 was characterized by a dramatic shift in US politics under President Trump, marked by unconventional diplomacy and aggressive policy implementation. Globally, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, coupled with emerging crises in Sudan and Venezuela, highlighted the complexities of international relations. The rise of AI and its impact on information dissemination, alongside the growing influence of tech billionaires, raised significant concerns about the future of democracy and societal discourse. The panel's predictions for 2026 pointed towards further political upheaval and a potential redefinition of global alliances and leadership. The year concluded with a reflection on the nature of performance and reality, drawing parallels to Shakespearean drama.