$18 TRILLION BOOM: Trump’s framework unlocks a TIDAL WAVE of new money

Manufacturing & the American Economy: A Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• Reshoring/Onshoring: Bringing manufacturing back to the United States.
• USMCA: United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a trade agreement.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): The use of computer systems to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence.
• Grid Reliability/Modernization: Ensuring a stable and updated electrical power grid.
• Workforce Development: Training and education programs to prepare workers for available jobs.
• Tariffs: Taxes imposed on imported goods.
• Dignity Act: Proposed legislation focused on immigration reform to address labor needs.
• New Collar Jobs: Jobs requiring technical skills, often blending traditional blue-collar and white-collar roles.

I. The 2026 Manufacturing Tour & Historical Context

The National Association of Manufacturers is launching a 2026 Manufacturing Tour, beginning at the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame in Ohio, timed to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the United States. Jay Timmons, President and CEO of the Association, draws a parallel to the Reagan era, highlighting a period of significant American competitive advantage. He emphasizes that the U.S. is at a similar inflection point now, poised to regain that advantage. The tour will focus on key policy areas: tax policy, permitting reform, workforce development, energy, and trade.

II. The Trump Administration’s Manufacturing Policies & Investment

President Trump’s administration has prioritized manufacturing through policies focused on tariffs, energy dominance, and pro-growth tax policies aimed at boosting competitiveness and lowering business costs. Timmons recalls that the 2017 tax plan announcement at a Board of Directors meeting was presented as “rocket fuel for the economy,” leading to record investment, job creation, and wage growth. The administration is credited with attracting approximately $18 trillion in new investment to the country through a supportive policy framework encompassing taxes, regulation, and energy policy. However, trade policy remains an area of uncertainty, particularly regarding the future of USMCA.

III. USMCA & Bilateral Trade Agreements

Discussion centered on the potential restructuring of USMCA. While currently a trilateral agreement (U.S., Canada, Mexico), there is consideration of pursuing bilateral agreements – one with Canada and one with Mexico. This shift is driven by concerns about Chinese companies circumventing the current agreement through transshipment and a desire to ensure genuine North American manufacturing. Jamie Greer’s previous commentary suggested the President is leaning towards bilateral deals, contingent on securing favorable concessions.

IV. The Role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Manufacturing

AI is presented as an “additive” force in manufacturing, not a disruptive one. Timmons references historical examples (radios, photographs) where technological advancements were initially feared to cause job losses but ultimately created new opportunities. Currently, 60% of manufacturers are already utilizing AI in their operations, with projections reaching 80% by 2031. There are currently 433,000 open jobs in manufacturing, requiring a workforce skilled in AI and related technologies. The administration prioritizes U.S. dominance in AI, recognizing the critical role of a robust energy supply and grid modernization to support AI-driven growth.

V. Energy Supply & Data Center Development

The increasing demand for energy, particularly due to the growth of data centers supporting AI, is a significant concern. While acknowledging the political debate surrounding data center development (Bernie Sanders’ call for a nationwide pause, resulting in the cancellation or postponement of 25 projects last month), Timmons aligns with President Trump’s prioritization of AI leadership, which necessitates data center expansion. The core issue is insufficient energy supply, requiring states to focus on enhancing grid capacity and reliability. Modernizing the aging grid (much of which is 50-70 years old) is crucial, potentially through federal incentives. A key point raised, echoing Peter Navarro’s comments, is the need for data centers to internalize the costs associated with their energy consumption and the impact on grid resiliency.

VI. The Evolving Nature of Manufacturing Jobs & Immigration

The discussion highlighted a shift towards “new collar jobs” – roles requiring a blend of technical and traditional skills. The types of jobs in manufacturing are constantly evolving, mirroring the historical trajectory since George Washington first prioritized the sector. Addressing the 433,000 open positions requires a multi-faceted approach, including workforce training and a reformed immigration system. Timmons specifically endorsed the Dignity Act, sponsored by Maria Salazar, which focuses on addressing the economic needs of the country while also securing the border.

VII. AI & Potential Job Displacement – A Contrasting View

A contrasting perspective was presented regarding potential job displacement due to AI. The CEO of Anthropic is cited as predicting that AI could eliminate 50% of entry-level and white-collar jobs within one to five years. This contrasts with Timmons’ view of AI as additive, emphasizing the emergence of new, skilled positions. The focus shifted to the types of jobs being created – electricians, engineers, plumbers – representing a demand for skilled trades.

Notable Quotes:

• Jay Timmons: “We have all the details in place for taxes and regulation and energy dominance. He’s been so forceful and effective on that.” (Referring to President Trump’s policies)
• Jay Timmons: “AI is additive and allows us to be more productive and produce more products in the United States.”
• Peter Navarro (as quoted by Maria): “They [data centers] had to pay not only pay for the electricity that they are using on the grid but they had to pay for the resiliency that they are affecting as well.”

Data & Statistics:

• $18 trillion: Estimated amount of new investment attracted to the U.S. due to policy changes.
• 433,000: Number of open jobs in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
• 60%: Percentage of manufacturers currently using AI in their operations.
• 80%: Projected percentage of manufacturers using AI by 2031.
• 25: Number of data center projects canceled or postponed last month.
• 56%: Month-over-month increase in data center project cancellations/postponements.

Conclusion:

The conversation paints a picture of a manufacturing sector undergoing a significant transformation, driven by policy changes, technological advancements (particularly AI), and evolving workforce needs. While challenges remain – particularly regarding trade uncertainty, energy supply, and potential job displacement – the overall outlook is optimistic, with a focus on reshoring, innovation, and a renewed emphasis on American competitiveness. Successful navigation of these challenges will require strategic investments in infrastructure, workforce development, and a flexible approach to trade policy. The emphasis on securing the border alongside addressing labor needs through immigration reform underscores a pragmatic approach to sustaining manufacturing growth.