$100 Silver Has Arrived in Most of the World

Precious Metals Bull Market & Federal Reserve Conflict – Market Update (January 2026)

Key Concepts:

• Debasement Trade: The ongoing trend of fiat currencies losing value, driving investment into hard assets like precious metals.
• Secular Trade: A long-term investment trend expected to last for years, driven by fundamental economic shifts.
• Dollarization/De-dollarization: The process of reducing reliance on the US dollar in international trade and reserves.
• Fiat Currency: Currency declared legal tender by a government, not backed by a physical commodity.
• London Float: The amount of silver available for lease in the London market, a key indicator of supply.
• COMEX: The Commodity Exchange, a major futures and options market for precious metals.
• ETF/ETP: Exchange Traded Funds/Exchange Traded Products – investment funds traded on stock exchanges.

I. Department of Justice Investigation & Federal Reserve Independence

The video begins with a report on a grand jury subpoena served to the Federal Reserve by the Department of Justice. This action is linked to testimony given by the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, regarding renovations of historic Federal Reserve buildings. Powell asserts this is a politically motivated attack, stemming from the Fed’s independent interest rate decisions, rather than concerns about the testimony or renovations themselves. He emphasizes the Fed’s commitment to setting rates based on economic conditions, not presidential preferences, and his dedication to serving the American people without political fear or favor. He stated, “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.” This marks an unprecedented challenge to the Fed’s independence, having served under both Republican and Democratic administrations.

II. Precious Metals Surge in Early 2026

The report highlights a significant surge in precious metals prices in the first two weeks of 2026. Gold and silver are experiencing substantial gains, exceeding historical performance averages. Specifically, silver is “ripping higher” and multiple standard deviations above its 45-year price performance averages. This is framed as part of an ongoing “fiat US dollar and collective fiat currency to basement trade,” a long-term trend of currency debasement. Nikki Seals of MKS PAMP, appearing on CNBC, predicts a gold price of $5,400, representing a 30% year-on-year increase, characterizing this as a “secular trade” and not a temporary “commodity blowoff top.” She noted last year was a “historic sort of once in a 100redy year event across precious metals where silver basically doubled um gold was up 60%”.

III. Geopolitical Factors & Commodity Weaponization

Seals attributes the precious metals bull market to a combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions and the potential for “weaponizing commodities.” She argues that actions like the US annexation of another country embolden nations like China and Russia to pursue their own interests, increasing demand for critical metals. She stated, “the US basically annexed a another country um which basically is a green light for China for Russia to also sort of be emboldened and go after Taiwan or Eastern um Europe.” While acknowledging short-term volatility and a potential 20% pullback, she maintains a bullish long-term outlook.

IV. Copper Demand & Critical Metal Shortages

The discussion extends to copper, noting a global need for 50% more copper than currently available. The report emphasizes that significant stockpiles of critical metals, including copper, platinum, and palladium, are held in the US and inaccessible to the rest of the world. This, coupled with underinvestment in mining over the past decade, creates a supply-side story driving up prices. Demand is fueled by both investment and industrial applications, particularly in the energy transition and AI economy. The White House and the Trump administration are acknowledging the US’s reliance on imported critical metals, with silver imports exceeding domestic mining by a factor of five.

V. Bullion Market Analysis & Investor Sentiment

David Malbani of Melbani Financial Companies, appearing on Bloomberg Canada, highlights a “once in a generation” monetary regime change. He notes that central banks are increasing gold allocations for the first time in three decades, with central bank gold holdings now exceeding US Treasury holdings, signaling de-dollarization. He believes investors are still hesitant to view gold as a safe haven, but a shift in sentiment could drive prices higher. He predicts gold could reach $8,300 to match the 2011 ratio low. Malbani forecasts silver to reach $100 per ounce initially, with potential for $230-$250 within three years, driven by both investor and industrial demand. He stated, “We’re looking at um you know $50 an ounce basically having been a threshold u for 50 years and we're breaking out into a new price regime.”

VI. Physical Silver Market Dynamics & Supply Concerns

The report details concerning trends in the physical silver market. Registered silver ounces in COMEX are declining, with over 77 million ounces withdrawn since September 2025. Large inflows into Indian silver ETFs (over 23.5 million ounces in December 2025 alone) indicate strong investment demand. Analyst David Jensen points to JP Morgan (custodian of the iShares SLV Trust) potentially raiding 1,000-ounce bars to arbitrage premiums in India, suggesting a tight supply situation. The London silver float has increased to 194 million ounces.

VII. US Mint Pricing & Bullion Availability

The US Mint has significantly increased prices on its silver coins, with uncirculated American Silver Eagles reaching $169 per coin. This is attributed to outdated website code and lack of investment in infrastructure. SD Bullion is offering American Silver Eagles near $100 per ounce, along with deals on pre-1965 silver coinage and gold Krugerrands.

VIII. Data & Statistics

• Gold Price (End of Week): $4,5597/oz bid
• Silver Price (End of Week): $908/oz bid
• Gold/Silver Ratio: 51:1 (momentarily broke into the high 40s intraweek)
• Shanghai Gold Exchange/Futures Exchange Stockpiles: 39.66 million ounces
• US Median House Price / Silver Ounce: 4,888 ounces (using $90/oz silver)
• COMEX Registered Silver Ounces Withdrawn: >77 million ounces (since Sept 2025)
• Indian Silver ETF Inflows (Dec 2025): 23.5 million ounces
• London Silver Float: 194 million ounces

Conclusion:

The report paints a picture of a rapidly evolving precious metals market driven by a confluence of factors: geopolitical instability, fiat currency debasement, increasing industrial demand, and tightening supply. The investigation into the Federal Reserve adds a layer of political risk, potentially accelerating the shift towards alternative assets. The data presented strongly suggests that the current bull market in precious metals is not a short-term phenomenon but a long-term secular trend with significant upside potential, particularly for silver. The ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand are likely to continue driving prices higher in 2026 and beyond.