100 days of US-Iran war: the winners and losers so far | Iran: the Latest

Key Concepts

• Strategic Objectives: The lack of clearly defined goals for the US-Iran conflict, leading to shifting justifications (regime change, nuclear disarmament, proxy destruction).
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait: A critical maritime chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea, currently closed by Houthi forces, impacting global trade.
• Maximum Pressure: A policy framework (originally from the first Trump administration) involving economic and military sanctions to force regime collapse.
• Asymmetric Warfare: The use of drones (e.g., Shahed) and ballistic missiles by Iran and its proxies to challenge superior conventional military forces.
• Operational vs. Strategic Success: The US military’s tactical proficiency in combat versus the failure to achieve long-term political or strategic outcomes.
• Zombie Regime: A term used to describe a government that remains in power despite severe domestic instability, economic collapse, and loss of legitimacy.

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1. Current Escalation (June 8, 2026)

The conflict has entered a volatile phase, effectively ending a period of diplomatic stagnation.

• Sequence of Escalation: Hezbollah fired projectiles into northern Israel; Israel bombed southern Beirut (Dahieh); Iran launched ~30 advanced ballistic missiles at Israel; Israel retaliated with strikes across western and central Iran (targeting petrochemical plants in Mahshahr and facilities near Karaj, Isfahan, and Tabriz).
• Houthi Involvement: The Houthis have fired missiles at Israel and declared the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a significant escalation in the regional economic war.
• US Involvement: President Trump is actively attempting to broker a ceasefire, claiming an agreement is imminent, while simultaneously facing criticism from Iran for allegedly greenlighting Israeli strikes.

2. The "100 Days of War" Analysis

A roundtable discussion with Ben Hodges (Retired US Army Europe Commander) and Holly Dagres (Washington Institute) evaluated the conflict since its start on February 28, 2026.

• Strategic Failures: Hodges argues the war lacked a coherent objective, leading to "mission creep." The US underestimated Iran’s ability to strike regional bases and failed to anticipate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian Resilience: Dagres notes that Iran successfully read US domestic politics, understanding that the American public is weary of "forever wars." Iran has utilized the conflict to project regional power, despite suffering significant losses to its conventional navy and leadership.
• Domestic Impact: Both experts agree the Iranian people are the primary losers. The war has exacerbated existing crises: water shortages, inflation, and environmental degradation. The regime remains "hardline" and repressive, with no signs of the anticipated popular uprising.

3. Methodologies and Frameworks

• The "Copy-Paste" Regime Change Fallacy: The administration applied a framework used in Venezuela (hoping for a quick collapse and a pro-US successor) to Iran, which failed due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the clerical establishment’s internal structure.
• Military Adaptation: Hodges highlights the "Gates Doctrine"—the US often starts wars poorly but adapts quickly. However, the high consumption of precision munitions (Tomahawks) is creating logistical strain and increasing risk to personnel.
• Narrative Warfare: Dagres points out that Iran has effectively utilized AI-generated content and social media to win the "narrative war," appealing to anti-war sentiments globally.

4. Notable Quotes

• Ben Hodges: "If you don't get the objective right, it's very difficult to get the force right... we are searching for justification, not a strategic objective."
• Holly Dagres: "They [Iran] really knew and understood the president... they actually had people sit and study him and study his psychology."
• Ben Hodges: "The US has a perfect record of getting it wrong at the start of every war, but how fast you get it right is the key."

5. Real-World Applications and Precedents

• Ukraine-Russia Conflict: President Zelensky has cited the Iran conflict as a precedent for "freezing the line of contact" to initiate peace talks. Conversely, Russian academics have debated whether "decapitation strikes" (killing leadership) are effective, using the US-Iran experience as a case study for why such tactics are not "silver bullets."
• Global Economic Impact: The closure of the Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global energy and fertilizer supplies, forcing European nations to reconsider their reliance on US-led security architectures.

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The war has reached a critical juncture where tactical military successes (destruction of Iranian assets) have failed to translate into the desired political outcome: regime change. The US faces a damaged reputation with NATO allies and a volatile domestic political environment. Meanwhile, Iran has successfully leveraged its regional proxies and economic chokepoints to maintain its position. The conflict serves as a cautionary tale regarding the dangers of entering a war without a clearly defined, achievable strategic objective, ultimately leaving the Iranian population to bear the brunt of the economic and humanitarian fallout.