100 days of Donald Trump 2.0 - Tariffs, tensions and tough talk | Deep Dive podcast
By CNA
Key Concepts
- First 100 days: An informal marker of a president's leadership style and policy agenda.
- Executive orders: Directives from the president to federal agencies on how to enforce and interpret laws.
- Tariffs: Taxes on imported goods.
- Trade war: An economic conflict where countries impose tariffs or other trade barriers on each other.
- Global trade policy: A set of principles, rules, and agreements that govern international trade.
- Immigration policy: Government regulations and procedures concerning the entry, stay, and departure of individuals into a country.
- America First: A political ideology that prioritizes domestic interests over international cooperation.
- Global leadership: The ability of a country to influence and guide international affairs.
- Governing trifecta: When one political party controls the executive branch, the House, and the Senate.
Trump 2.0: First 100 Days Overview
The podcast discusses Donald Trump's first 100 days in his second term as US President, comparing it to his first term and analyzing its impact on domestic and foreign policy. The discussion features CNA correspondent Tony Waterman, based in Washington D.C.
Comparison to First Term
- Trump 1.0 on Steroids: The current presidency is characterized as a more aggressive and experienced version of Trump's first term.
- Novice vs. Experienced: In his first term, Trump was new to Washington politics, leading to a more conventional approach initially. Now, he is more attuned to the system and committed to reshaping and centralizing power.
- Executive Orders: Trump has relied heavily on executive orders, signing approximately 130, four times more than in the same period in 2017 and more than half of his first term total.
- Legislation: Only five bills have been signed into law, a record low compared to 28 in 2017, raising concerns about the centralization of power in the executive branch.
Domestic Policy
- Government Restructuring: Significant changes include government restructuring, layoffs in the name of efficiency, the end of US aid, a planned State Department shakeup, and the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
- Citizen Response: While Trump is fulfilling campaign promises, many voters are surprised by the wide-ranging policies.
- Approval Rating: Trump's approval rating is declining, particularly concerning the economy, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing only 37% approval of his handling of the economy.
- Economic Concerns: The trade war has sparked concerns about inflation and a potential recession, leading to market sell-offs.
- Immigration: Immigration remains a key issue, with Trump implementing policies such as shutting down the border, limiting asylum cases, and detaining or ejecting students and scientists.
- University Funding: Funding has been yanked from universities like Harvard and Colombia due to the "America First" ideology.
- Venezuelan Immigrants: Suspected Venezuelan gang members are being sent to a mega prison in El Salvador.
Foreign Policy
- Ukraine-Russia War: Trump's promise to end the war on day one has not materialized. Critics argue he is too demanding of Ukraine and lenient towards Putin.
- NATO: The US remains in NATO, but Trump is considering linking members' defense spending to US security cooperation.
- Iran Nuclear Deal: The administration is working on a new nuclear deal with Iran after Trump withdrew from the Obama-era deal.
- Isolating China: Isolating China is a primary objective, evident in the new tariffs.
- Tariffs: Trump's tariff moves have been criticized as erratic, unnecessary, and counterproductive. He claims they will make America wealthy again.
- Economic Impact of Tariffs: Economists believe tariffs will drive up prices, reignite inflation, and potentially cause a recession. The IMF has revised down its global growth forecast due to these tariffs.
- Trade Policy: Tariffs have upended 80 years of global trade policy focused on breaking down trade barriers.
- Manufacturing: Questions remain about the seriousness of bringing manufacturing back to the US, especially low-end manufacturing, and the availability of labor.
Global Impact
- Retreat from Global Leadership: The biggest adjustment the world has had to make is America's retreat from global leadership in foreign aid, trade, war policy, and climate change.
- Power Vacuum: This retreat has left a major vacuum to be filled, potentially by China or other adversaries like Russia.
- European Response: Europe, particularly France, is emphasizing self-reliance, especially militarily, due to concerns about the US being a reliable partner.
- Trade Rejigging: Countries like Spain are pushing for more trade with China, indicating a potential shift in trade and policy alliances.
Republican Pushback
- Governing Trifecta: Despite Republicans controlling the executive branch, House, and Senate, legislative success has been limited.
- Congressional Power: There has been a handing over of congressional power to the president.
- Red Lines: Some pushback is emerging on issues like proposed changes to Social Security and Trump's tariffs.
- Tariff Impact on Farmers: Retaliatory tariffs from China are impacting farmers in red states.
- Layoffs at VA: Mass layoffs of federal employees, including at the Department of Veteran Affairs, are also facing pushback.
- Fear of Retaliation: Republicans are hesitant to stand up to Trump due to fear of retaliation, especially in primary races.
Future Outlook
- No Slowdown Expected: Trump is not expected to slow down in his second term, as presidents often push through controversial policies during their last term.
- Potential Actions: Further tariffs on pharmaceuticals and lumber are likely, along with continued isolation of China.
- Midterm Impact: If tariffs lead to rising prices or a recession, it could impact the midterm elections and potentially shift the balance of power.
Conclusion
Trump's first 100 days in his second term have been marked by aggressive policy changes, a focus on executive power, and a reshaping of America's role in the world. While he is fulfilling campaign promises, the wide-ranging impact of his policies has surprised many, leading to declining approval ratings and concerns about the economy and global stability. The long-term consequences of these actions remain to be seen, but they are likely to have a significant impact on both domestic and international affairs.
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