10 Value Stocks To Buy From Value Investing Quadrant - November 2025

Key Concepts

• Value Investing: A strategy of investing in stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value.
• P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): A valuation metric that compares a company's stock price to its earnings per share.
• Dividend Yield: The annual dividend payment divided by the stock's price, expressed as a percentage.
• EPS Growth (Earnings Per Share Growth): The increase in a company's earnings per share over a period.
• Margin of Safety: The difference between the intrinsic value of an asset and its market price, providing a buffer against errors in judgment or unforeseen events.
• Extrapolation Bias: The tendency to assume that past trends will continue into the future.
• Free Cash Flow Yield: Free cash flow per share divided by the stock price, expressed as a percentage.
• Backlog: The total value of work that has been ordered but not yet completed.
• Intrinsic Value: The perceived or calculated value of an asset.
• Schiller P/E Ratio (CAPE Ratio): A valuation metric that uses inflation-adjusted earnings over a 10-year period.

Best Buys

Amsterdam Commodities

• Current Position: 3.75% of the portfolio.
• Rationale for Holding/Adding: The speaker believes the fundamentals remain strong despite the stock price.
• Key Metrics:
  • Dividend Yield: 5.5%
  • P/E Ratio: 10
• Business Description: Essential business dealing in spices, seeds, organic tea, and food solutions.
• Performance: Achieved 8% EPS growth over the last 10 years.
• Future Outlook: Potential for a 2 euro 2 something dividend, yielding close to 10%, with additional upside from market adjustments.
• Speaker's Perspective: Acknowledges it's a small business but has followed it for 10 years and finds value in its niche markets. Emphasizes compounding through dividends and potential long-term capital appreciation.

Norwegian Oil Producers (Aker)

• Current Status: Performing well, with improving outlook.
• Key Metrics:
  • Dividend Yield: 8-9% (US Knock)
  • Production Costs: Very low.
• Speaker's Preference: Prefers Aker over Equinor due to Equinor's perceived "cosmetic" diversification into offshore wind, which the speaker believes offers lower returns on invested capital compared to drilling Norwegian oil.
• Action: Equinor is being removed from the quadrant.

Stocks Removed from the Quadrant

BlackRock

• Initial Consideration: Discussed as an example, with potential for 2x growth in 3-4 years if the bubble continues.
• Reason for Removal: Lack of margin of safety. The speaker believes if the current market bubble reverts, BlackRock stock would also decline significantly. Considered too risky.

Green Partners

• Reason for Removal: Weakening results and concerns about land prices in Dallas and Atlanta.
• Performance Indicators:
  • Revenue: Down 4.6%
  • EPS: Negative, down 10%
• Speaker's Perspective: While not a bad business with a strong balance sheet and potential long-term returns of 10%, the current market conditions for land investment are not yet at a "bargain" level.

Ferrovial

• Reason for Removal: Described as a "crashing value investment" but requires a specific strategy, which is not detailed here.

Stellantis

• Reason for Removal: Considered an automotive stock, similar to internet and AI stocks, lacking a competitive advantage. The speaker has made a video on extrapolation bias related to this stock.

HPQ

• Consideration: 10% free cash flow yield, buybacks, dividends, strong PC market position. Printing business has been declining for a decade but remains profitable.
• Reason for Hesitation/Potential Removal: Potential impact of a recession could hit the stock harder.

Nomad Foods

• Current Status: Cheap on fundamentals, with earnings expected soon.
• Key Metrics:
  • Dividend Yield: 5.3% (now 6% as price has decreased).
• Action: Likely to have a better update next month.

Valaris

• Origin: Stolen from Monish Pabrai.
• Performance: Market is rewarding the stock, with daily rates and backlog increasing.
• Reason for Removal: The speaker feels they have "missed the train" and can no longer offer significant guidance.

Canadian Stocks (Canadian National Railway, Canadian Natural Resources, etc.)

• Reason for Removal: Considered too expensive.

Accidental Petroleum

• Current Status: Stock is getting cheaper. Sold Oxycam.
• Speaker's Concern: Higher risk compared to Norwegian oil producers due to higher production costs, despite similar potential returns. Uncertainty about future oil prices.

Veiler Resorts

• Consideration: 7-8% dividend yield, potential for ski company investment.
• Action: Undecided, may be considered next time.

Warrior Met Coal

• Origin: Another Monish Pabrai idea.
• Current Status: Coal prices and related commodity stocks are rising.
• Action: May be removed or moved to higher risk due to significant appreciation.

DAO Inc.

• Performance: Dividend yield is decreasing. Results are negative, with profits down and operating losses per share.
• Speaker's Perspective: The best time to buy such a business is when things look "ugly," but improvement is needed before buying. Significant downside risk due to recession.

Petrobras

• Requirement: Needs higher oil prices to be less risky.
• Current Status: Risk is reflected in the stock price.

Nutrien / BHP

• Nutrien: Mid-cycle on fertilizers, speaker desires a 15% yield for a great value investment.
• BHP: Considered very risky, moved towards a 5% yield.

Amazon

• Performance: Great earnings, growing, but significant investments are impacting profitability.
• Speaker's Concern: Uncertainty about the outcome of these investments and fierce competition in the cloud sector.
• Past Consideration: Was considered a good risk/reward opportunity when the downside was minimal and upside was 2x-3x.

Google

• Current Status: Stock price is increasing, making it riskier for the speaker.
• Past Prediction: Speaker had previously predicted it could reach $500, which is now closer, but this also signifies high risk.

Dividend Equity ETF

• Reason for Concern: High dividend payers are often linked to the economy. A recession could lead to dividend cuts, reducing the yield. Considered potentially riskier.

S&P 500 (Shiller Ratio)

• Valuation: Extreme valuations, indicating a bubble.
• Risk: Extremely risky. If the bubble bursts, the current dividend yield is negligible, limiting potential gains.
• Alternative: Berkshire Hathaway is suggested as a better diversified US business investment due to its cash position.

Stocks Remaining in the Quadrant (with Portfolio Allocation)

Aker (Norwegian Oil Producer)

• Portfolio Allocation: Medium position.
• Strategy: Waiting for an oil crash.

Amsterdam Commodities

• Portfolio Allocation: Full position.
• Rationale: Already a full position, holding for long-term value.

Mosaic & Nutrien (Fertilizers)

• Portfolio Allocation: Medium positions.
• Strategy: Receiving dividends, expecting mid-cycle on fertilizers.

Nomad Foods

• Portfolio Allocation: Medium position.
• Strategy: Monitoring for updates.

Portfolio Allocation Strategy

• Medium Position: 2-3% of the portfolio, with potential for further buys.
• Full Position: 5-6% of the portfolio, with an expectation of 10% or higher return over time.

Portfolio Performance

• Last Year: 15% return.
• Since Inception: Not explicitly stated, but implied positive.
• Total Positions: 22, all covered on the research platform.

Conclusion

The speaker provides a monthly update on their value investing quadrant, detailing additions, removals, and current holdings. The focus is on identifying businesses with strong fundamentals, reasonable valuations (often indicated by a P/E ratio of 10), and potential for dividend income and capital appreciation. The speaker emphasizes the importance of margin of safety and avoiding overly expensive assets, particularly in the current market environment which they perceive as having extreme valuations and potential for a bubble. The portfolio is structured with medium and full positions based on conviction and risk assessment. The speaker also highlights their research platform as a resource for detailed analysis of covered stocks.