10 Pitfalls in Future Thinking - and How to Avoid Them | Lukasz Nazarko | TEDxMedUniGraz

Key Concepts

• Low Probability, High Impact Events: Events with a low chance of occurring but significant consequences that shape reality (e.g., wild cards, black swans).
• Non-Intuitive Probability: Probabilities that defy common human intuition, often due to cognitive biases or the complexity of calculations (e.g., birthday problem, medical test interpretation).
• Uncertainty vs. Risk: Risk is defined as measurable ignorance, while uncertainty is unmeasurable ignorance.
• Rationalizing Beings vs. Rational Beings: Humans tend to rationalize their decisions after the fact, driven by emotions and subconscious processes, rather than being purely rational decision-makers.
• Amar's Law: The tendency to exaggerate short-term impacts while ignoring long-term transformations, particularly in technology.
• Culture of Short-Termism: Organizational cultures that prioritize immediate goals, obedience, and effectiveness over long-term vision, creativity, and imagination, hindering foresight.
• Negativity Bias: The tendency to focus on negative information and underestimate positive developments, leading to a pessimistic view of the future.
• Hype vs. Hope: Hype is loud, often driven by corporate interests, and focuses on immediate impact, while hope is quieter, collaborative, people-based, and concerned with long-term transformation.
• Agency in Shaping the Future: The understanding that the future is not predetermined but is actively created through collective action and conscious choices.

Summary

This presentation challenges conventional thinking about probability, risk, and the future, drawing on personal anecdotes and scientific concepts to advocate for a more nuanced and imaginative approach.

The Unlikely Path to Existence

The speaker begins by recounting the extraordinary journey of his great-grandparents during World War I. His great-grandmother fled her home in partitioned Poland, traveling 5,000 kilometers to Siberia with three million others. His great-grandfather, conscripted into the Russian army, became a prisoner of war in Austria. Miraculously, he found his wife after the war, leading to the birth of their son, the speaker's grandfather, who later survived World War II as a forest laborer. This personal narrative serves as a powerful illustration of the improbable chain of events that leads to individual existence and prompts the question of the odds of such occurrences.

Debunking Probability Myths

The presentation then delves into a series of statements about probability and decision-making, presented as a quiz:

• "Low probability events are not important and we should focus on high probability." This is declared false. The speaker argues that low probability, high impact events, termed "wild cards" or "black swans," are precisely what shape our reality and drive significant change. In a complex and dynamic world, the ability to calculate everything is diminishing, making the consideration of these low-probability events crucial.
• "Probability is often non-intuitive." This is stated as true. Two examples are provided:
  • The Birthday Problem: In a group of about 100 people, there's over an 80% chance that at least 10 pairs share the same birthday. This defies common intuition because our brains are not wired for such complex probability calculations.
  • Medical Test Accuracy: A patient with a 1% base rate of breast cancer and a 90% accurate mammogram (with 10% false positives) receives a positive result. The intuitive assumption of a 90% or even 70% chance of having cancer is incorrect. Due to the low base rate, the actual probability of having cancer given a positive test is less than 9%. This highlights the critical importance of considering the "base rate probability" or "base rate fallacy."
• "Uncertainty equals risk." This is false. The distinction is made that risk is measurable ignorance, while uncertainty is unmeasurable ignorance. While numbers and percentages are attractive, relying solely on calculable aspects limits our understanding of reality. The speaker suggests a shortage of imagination is more critical than a shortage of predictions or models.

Navigating Decision-Making and Future Perception

The presentation continues by examining human behavior and decision-making:

• "Will worry about the future in the future. I cannot think about it today because I will go crazy." This approach is deemed false, though relatable to procrastinators. The speaker identifies a tendency to avoid uncomfortable strategic decisions by focusing on minor tasks, thus hindering the shaping of positive futures.
• "Acting quickly is always better than acting wisely." This is also false. The dilemma between quick action and thoughtful reflection is highlighted, with the wisdom of pausing to think being emphasized.
• "People are rational decision makers." This is declared false. While economics often assumes rational consumers, cognitive sciences and behavioral economics reveal that humans are more accurately described as rationalizing beings. Our emotional and subconscious systems (System 1) are faster than our reflective systems (System 2), leading to decisions often made before conscious awareness, followed by post-hoc rationalizations.
• "We tend to exaggerate short-term impact and we tend to ignore long-term transformation." This is true and attributed to Amar's Law. Gene editing is used as an example: initial hype predicted immediate cures, but a "calm revolution" is now emerging after 25 years, demonstrating that significant transformations take time.
• "Culture is foresight for breakfast." This is framed as true, extending to lunch and dinner. Referencing Peter Drucker's "culture eats strategy for breakfast," the speaker emphasizes that even sophisticated foresight systems are undermined by a culture of short-termism, rewarding obedience over dissent, and effectiveness over creativity. Organizations that integrate foresight into their culture thrive, while others are likely to disappear.
• "Future is dark and we are doomed." This is false, despite the prevalence of the negativity bias. Two statistics are presented:
  • 90% of the world's population has access to drinking water within 30 minutes of their homes, yet over 70% of respondents underestimate this figure.
  • 11% of the world's population lacks sufficient food daily, a number also underestimated by a majority of respondents. These examples illustrate that even educated individuals are susceptible to negativity bias, leading to a distorted and pessimistic view of the world and its future. The speaker advocates for greater optimism.
• "Hype equals hope." This is false. Hype is loud, headline-grabbing, and often driven by corporate interests for profit. Hope, conversely, is quieter, collaborative, and people-based. Technological advancements require as much focus on human aspects as on technological ones. Democratic and transparent processes in technological development are as crucial as scientific discoveries.

Conclusion: Making the Future

The presentation concludes with the powerful statement: "There is no future because there are futures. We don't find futures. We make them. We make them together." The linear view of world development is deemed outdated. Instead, the speaker advocates for thinking in multiple scenarios and recognizing our agency in shaping the future we desire.

A poem by Wisława Szymborska, "Nothing Twice," is shared as a fitting summary: "Nothing can ever happen twice. / Consequently, the sorry fact is / we arrive for the first time without practice. / We leave without the practice, / even if we are the biggest dunces on earth / a pupil there will never be the second time. / No day will ever repeat. / No two kisses will be the same. / No meeting will be repeated. / No two eyes will look the same. / Because of the fact that we are copyrighted for life. / Because of the fact that we are gifted with life. / We are without practice and will never be pupils again." This poem underscores the unique, unrepeatable nature of each moment and the importance of engaging with the present and future with full awareness and agency.