1 Stock To BUY NOW In December 2025

Key Concepts

Market Context: December market trends, historical S&P 500 performance, impact of September's performance on November, prediction of an uptrending 2025 with high volatility.
Cryptocurrency Deleveraging: Bitcoin price drop, reasons for decline (support breaks, overleveraged players, ETF outflows, DeFi hacks, risk-off sentiment), historical cycles, opportunity in downside swings.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Put Options: Rationale for betting against MSTR due to leverage, financing risk, liquidity gaps, event-driven volatility, and valuation disconnect.
The Metals Company (TMC): Deep-sea mining company, polymetallic nodules, critical metals (nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese), energy transition needs, arbitrage opportunity.
TMC's Technical Studies: Mineral reserves (51 million tons proven), Net Present Value (NPV) projections ($5.5 billion prefeasibility, $18.1 billion broader resources), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) projections (27%, 36%), EBITDA margins (57%).
Government Tailwinds for TMC: China's dominance in rare earths, US national security concerns, Executive Order 13877 ("Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources"), NOAA's expedited permit process.
TMC's Board Member: Steve Jurvetson (former Tesla board, current SpaceX board), early investor in Tesla, SpaceX, Planet Labs, Commonwealth Fusion Systems.
Environmental Benefits of TMC: Lower CO2 emissions (70-75% less than traditional mining), reduced land use (94% less), elimination of solid waste (zero tailings).
TMC's Chart Setup and Catalysts: Momentum in business and stock chart, positioning ahead of regulatory catalyst (International Seabed Authority rules), rising battery metal demand, supply chain security concerns, speculative flows into resource names.
Risks: Execution risk, regulatory risk, high volatility.

Market Context and December Outlook

The video begins by addressing the market sentiment heading into December, following a "choppy November." Historical data indicates that December tends to be a strong month for the S&P 500, finishing higher 73% of the time since 1928, making it the most consistent green month. However, the speaker cautions against expecting consistent daily gains, emphasizing the potential for "mirages, delusions, and distractions."

A key observation for the current year is that September, typically a red month, was green. This anomaly is believed to have pushed the usual fall sell-off into November, contributing to its choppiness. The expectation is that this has reset the slate for December, potentially leading to a year-end rally if history repeats. The speaker frames volatility as an opportunity rather than an enemy.

2025 Market Prediction and Investor Strategy

Looking ahead to 2025, the prediction is for an overall uptrending year, driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts, unprecedented capital expenditures (capex), and excessive money printing, all contributing to a "continued meltup." However, this uptrend is expected to be accompanied by "massive, massive volatility" due to high valuations, overleveraging, and fear-mongering during expansion cycles. This volatility is anticipated to manifest in significant dips, similar to or more frequent than the April crash seen in the past year.

The speaker highlights that this environment will be advantageous for "dip buyers" and long-term investors seeking deals, as well as traders who can profit from both upside and downside movements. Conversely, it is predicted to be detrimental to new investors who expect consistent daily gains, as they are likely to "buy high and sell low" during periods of fear. The speaker's mission is to equip viewers with the tools to avoid this pitfall by thinking independently, relying on data, and managing conviction through volatility. The channel's history of advocating for buying dips during significant market downturns (COVID, 2022 rate hikes, April crash, November chop) is cited as evidence of this strategy.

Cryptocurrency Market and MSTR Put Options

The discussion then shifts to the cryptocurrency market, noting a "massive deleveraging" and Bitcoin's role as a bellwether. The reasons for Bitcoin's decline are attributed to:

Breaking key support levels, leading to consolidation.
Washing out of overleveraged players.
Record spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, potentially influenced by hedge funds.
Fear-mongering around DeFi hacks.
Broader risk-off sentiment impacting crypto.

While expressing belief in Bitcoin and Bitcoin miners, the speaker emphasizes the aggressive downside potential of cryptocurrencies during bear markets, presenting an opportunity for those who can "milk that." As an example of capitalizing on this downside, the channel alerted members to "MSTR put options," betting against MicroStrategy, described as one of the most leveraged Bitcoin plays.

The specific reasons for betting against MSTR include:

Leverage Magnification: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin exposure is levered, making downside shocks more severe.
High Beta to BTC: Modest Bitcoin drops often result in disproportionately larger MSTR declines.
Financing Risk Premium: Debt-funded Bitcoin purchases by MSTR increase downside sensitivity during market stress.
Liquidity Gaps: MSTR's thinner liquidity can exaggerate Bitcoin's moves due to larger institutional swings.
Event-Driven Volatility: MSTR amplifies Bitcoin's reactions to macro data, regulatory news, and ETF flows.
Short-Term Momentum Snap: MSTR tends to overshoot in both directions, benefiting put options on the downside.
Valuation Disconnect: Premium-based valuations are expected to compress rapidly during sell-offs.

The speaker reiterates their long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin but highlights the opportunity to profit from obvious downside swings, such as the one observed with MSTR.

The Metals Company (TMC) - Deep Sea Mining Opportunity

The main focus of the video is on The Metals Company (TMC), a deep-sea mining company with significant upside potential and an "arbitrage opportunity." TMC is involved in collecting "polymetallic nodules" from the ocean floor at depths of four to six kilometers. These nodules are described as potato-sized rocks rich in critical metals:

Nickel: Essential for batteries.
Cobalt: Also crucial for batteries.
Copper: Used in a wide range of applications.
Manganese: Used in steel and batteries.

These metals are vital for the global energy transition, powering electric motors, power grids, AI data center backup systems, and defense systems.

TMC's Technical Studies and Valuation

In August 2025, TMC released significant technical studies:

World's First Mineral Reserves: Declared 51 million tons of proven reserves for polymetallic nodules.
Prefeasibility Study: Suggested a Net Present Value (NPV) of $5.5 billion and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 27%.
Broader Resources Assessment: Indicated an additional $18.1 billion in NPV with a 36% IRR and 57% EBITDA margins at steady state.

The combined project value from these studies is approximately $23.6 billion. In contrast, TMC's current market cap is around $2 billion. This discrepancy is attributed to the inherent risks associated with this type of company, but the speaker believes these risks are "overpriced." The potential upside, if the company succeeds, is estimated to be a "10x" based on these feasibility studies.

Government Tailwinds and National Security

A significant driver for TMC is the geopolitical landscape surrounding critical minerals. China currently controls over 70% of the world's rare earth supply, and this dominance has been "weaponized" through export controls. The US, facing this dependency, is seeking to establish domestic supply chains.

President Trump's Executive Order 13877, signed on April 24, 2025, titled "Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources," is a key catalyst. This order explicitly states US policy to:

Rapidly develop domestic capabilities for seabed mineral exploration and collection.
Establish the US as a global leader in seabed mineral development.
Create a robust domestic supply chain for critical minerals.
Counter China's influence in the seabed mineral space.

The order directed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to expedite the permit process under the Deep Sea Seabed Hard Minerals Resources Act of 1980.

Steve Jurvetson's Endorsement

Steve Jurvetson, a former Tesla board member and current SpaceX board member, joined TMC's board as Vice Chairman in April 2024. Jurvetson, an early investor in companies like Tesla and SpaceX, stated that "the collection of deep sea nodules to acquire nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese is the most environmentally benign option on Earth, especially when compared to leveling rainforests, causing devastation to human communities and some of our planet's most valuable ecosystems." His endorsement, coming from someone instrumental in building major tech companies, is seen as a significant validation.

Environmental Benefits

TMC's deep-sea nodule collection offers substantial environmental advantages over traditional mining:

CO2 Emissions: 70-75% lower than traditional mining, according to studies in the Journal of Cleaner Production.
Land Use: 94% less land use.
Solid Waste: 100% elimination of solid waste, meaning zero tailings.

These environmental benefits are crucial given the increasing focus on sustainable resource extraction.

Chart Setup and Regulatory Catalyst

The stock chart for TMC is described as "healthy," with momentum building in both the business and stock price. Traders are positioning themselves ahead of a "potentially massive regulatory catalyst" from the International Seabed Authority, which is entering a window where deep-sea mining rules could advance. TMC is identified as the "purest publicly traded play" on this thesis. The combination of rising battery metal demand, supply chain security concerns, and speculative flows into early-stage resource names creates a "perfect recipe for torque."

Risks and Conclusion

The speaker emphasizes that TMC is a "high-risk, but potentially high-reward play." The primary risks identified are:

Execution Risk: The company needs to successfully implement its complex deep-sea mining operations.
Regulatory Risk: The advancement and finalization of deep-sea mining regulations by the International Seabed Authority are critical.
High Volatility: As with many early-stage resource companies, TMC is expected to experience significant price swings.

The video concludes by reiterating that while many investors seek "high-flying, fast-moving, uptrending stocks with zero downside risk," such opportunities are rare. Instead, the focus is on identifying "arbitrage opportunities" with strong tailwinds. TMC is presented as such a company, but with the caveat that "volatility is something to be mindful of." The speaker mentions alerting members to a specific call option on TMC to capitalize on the perceived arbitrage.